Our emissions targets are 'easy peasy' to meet by ending land clearing and native forest logging

This opinion-editorial first appeared in The Mercury newspaper on 4 Sep 2024.

Federal leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton has stated the Coalition would junk Labor's legislated target to reduce emissions by 43 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030. He said it was unachievable and would drive up power prices.

Whatever other reasons there may or may not be for proposing nuclear energy as Australia's clean energy solution, the supposed unachievability of Labor's 2030 emissions reduction target is not one of them. On the contrary, the evidence is clear that this is an "easy peasy" target.

Meeting the Albanese government's emissions reduction requires Australia's emissions to decrease by about 14.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent a year between now and 2030.

Is that a big ask? Not really, as there are many pathways that can deliver this result. A key one is ending land clearing and logging of native forests. Emissions from these activities are at least 14.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent a year and possibly as much as 37.5 million tonnes.

Reducing emissions from the forest sector will complement and add to the extraordinary progress being made in reducing fossil fuel emissions through substitution from clean energy sources. In July 2014, 15 per cent of our national energy came from clean renewables (1 per cent solar, 6 per cent wind, 8 per cent hydro). A decade later, as noted by AEMO, the energy transition is already well under way and utilityscale and consumer renewables are breaking records and creating economic opportunities.

Renewables accounted for almost 40 per cent of the total electricity delivered through the National Electricity Market in 2023, momentarily reaching up to a 72.1 per cent share on October 24, 2023.

"Ending land clearing and native forest logging is also an important climate solution because it delivers an immediate mitigation benefit and does not require the investment of vast amounts of capital in energy related infrastructure."

Native forests store millions of tonnes of carbon that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere as part of land clearing and logging.

This is particularly important in Australia as we have some of the world's most carbon-dense forests; especially those in Central Victoria, eastern NSW and Tasmania. In Tasmania alone, a large and rapid drop in native forest logging resulted in a mitigation benefit of 22 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year between 2011 and 2019.

If we stop logging native forests, where will we get our wood from? The answer is to move to a plantation-only industry, as New Zealand did 25 years ago.

Almost 90 per cent of all sawn timber for making furniture, roof trusses, floorboards and other sawn wood products already comes from plantations. Plantations cover a mere 1.5 per cent of Australia's total forest area. In fact, a swift exit from native forest logging will create greater incentives for more investment in plantations and boost jobs in the manufacturing component of the sector.

As a climate solution, ending land clearing and native forest logging provides many benefits in addition to fast-tracking our 2030 emissions reduction target.

States like Tasmania and New South Wales will be far better off financially if they cease native forest logging. This is because the native forest logging industry is a major loss maker everywhere it operates. For example, the industry has lost more than $1.3bn in Tasmania in the past two decades. Losses in NSW have been in the hundreds of millions.

In Victoria, the industry has been the beneficiary of more than $850m in handouts. These losses might be justifiable (and the massive carbon emissions possibly tolerable), if the native forest logging industry employed large numbers of people. Yet employment levels are low and are in rapid decline. For example, more than 99 per cent of the Tasmanian workforce is not in the native forest logging industry. Entire regions, such as south-eastern NSW, employ fewer than 300 people in jobs directly and indirectly related to native forest logging. We're already on the path to ending native forest logging. Native forest logging stopped in South Australia 150 years ago and 45 years ago in the ACT. Victoria and Western Australia announced an end to native forest logging in January 2024.

Loss of habitat from land clearing is not only a major source of CO2 emissions it also threatens endangered animals and plants and the run-off from land clearing results in sediment and nutrient enrichment, which threatens the health of the Great Barrier Reef. The federal government is spending about half a billion dollars on trying to reduce these impacts.

The bottom line is that Australia can reach its 2030 emissions reduction target if it halts the clearing and logging of its native forests. That will also bring with it financial, economic and social benefits, as well as slowing losses of biodiversity.

Professor David Lindenmayer is from the Fenner School of Environment and Society at The Australian National University and is a Biodiversity Council Councillor. Professor Brendan Mackey leads the Climate Action Beacon at Griffith University. This Op-Ed was first published in the Hobart Mercury on 4 Sep 2024.